VOLTEDGE
Hermes · Autonomous Live Trader
MODE: LIVE / BUY HALT
Account ••8639 · dashboard file built Aug 31, 2026 14:35 CT
Build time is not broker, Scout, or model freshness.

Current truth

Scout research
TODAY Aug 31 06:41 CT
scheduled daily research passes 06:00 and 16:00 CT; browser reload does not rerun Scout
Hermes readiness
TRADE READY — 2 candidates
tradability/quote check as of Aug 31 08:39 CT; benchmark 2026-08-28; no missing fields
Current state
BUY_DRAWDOWN_HALT (new BUYs only; SELL protection live); NEW BUYs PAUSED by exposure governor (SELL protection live)
greed regime: EXTREME_GREED — base buy-side shrink; extreme greed + low VIX percentile (3.1746) sustained — escalated shrink; 3 recent stop-loss fills >= 3 — cooldown active; cooldown probation unavailable: active=True attempts=1 hold=0 complete=True
Trading mode
ENABLED LIVE
account ••8639
Daily brain
EXITS_ONLY / no new BUY capacity
greed regime: EXTREME_GREED — base buy-side shrink; extreme greed + low VIX percentile (3.1746) sustained — escalated shrink; 3 recent stop-loss fills >= 3 — cooldown active; cooldown probation unavailable: active=True attempts=1 hold=0 complete=True
Broker snapshot
Aug 31 14:30 CT
broker readback; fresh at dashboard build
Entry orders now
0
snapshot readback; historical orders excluded
Next in-window cycle
Tue 08:30 CT
08:30-14:30 CT decision window; later task heartbeats are guard-only
Last model pair
SKIPPED
cycle Aug 31 14:35 CT; EQUITY_DRAWDOWN_BLOCKS_BUYS, DAILY_BUY_CAP_REACHED
Historical aborts
3
history only — not active blockers
Decision ledger
136 model votes
append-only evidence
Browser reload
every 3 minutes
reloads this saved HTML only; it does not fetch broker, Scout, or model data
Equity
$1,950.63
▼ $-49.37 (-2.47%)
Cash
$1,616.76
buying power $1,616.76
Positions
2
2 open order(s)
Day
28
since 2026-08-04
Cycles today
7
0 aborted

Risk cockpit

Open risk
$36.62
1.9% of equity
Stop coverage
2/2
broker snapshot readback
Position slots
2/4 open
2 effective remaining; baseline 6
Counted BUYs
0/0 effective
baseline 0/2; matches validator accounting
Exposure cap
60.0%
recorded effective governor cap
Buying power
$1,616.76
cash $1,616.76
Pending entries
0
current snapshot only
Sector heat
HEDGE_VIX 1, MATERIALS 1
open positions
Active locks
BUY_DRAWDOWN_HALT (BUY only), exposure governor cooldown (BUY only)
current files only
PositionQtyEntryLast$ at stopProtectionSectorNext earnings
VIXM17.0$14.38$13.54$31.96PROTECTED
one live broker stop matches state, quantity, and price
HEDGE_VIX--
PAAS2.0$52.93$51.89$4.66PROTECTED
one live broker stop matches state, quantity, and price
MATERIALSnone_within_30d
Risk definition: open risk is entry-to-stored-stop risk times quantity; it is not a forecast of maximum possible loss.

Today's opportunity board

Price truth: an asterisk means status was recomputed from the last plan baseline because no newer valid hourly observation exists. plan 2026-08-31 · created Aug 31 08:40 CT · 5 hourly observations · NONE_SHADOW_ONLY
Review status: 5 valid hourly observation(s); latest Aug 31 14:32 CT
#SymbolSetupLast observedTriggerInvalidationMax chaseStatusModelsEarningsLatest result
1RGENbreakout_retest
forming · q 71.37
MVP A 93.0/100 · confirmed leader		$179.89
hourly quote		$168.37
+6.8% to trigger		$163.32$171.74EXTENDED
no setup warning		Fable BUY · Opus BUY
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		2026-10-27NO ORDER
2NOGbreakout_retest
forming · q 73.61
MVP A 87.0/100 · confirmed leader		$25.96
hourly quote		$25.02
+3.8% to trigger		$24.27$25.52EXTENDED
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		2026-11-05NOT SELECTED
3HALOunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$106.11
hourly quote		$105.35
+0.7% to trigger		$96.92$107.46TRIGGERED
no setup warning		fable-5 READY/6 · opus WAIT/6
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
4IQVbreakout_retest
triggered · q 71.86
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$260.86
hourly quote		$251.36
+3.8% to trigger		$243.82$256.39EXTENDED
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownTOO EXTENDED
5MRKevent_gap_hold
forming · q 67.22
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$148.25
hourly quote		$156.92
-5.5% to trigger		$144.90$160.06WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
6AXGNunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$50.82
hourly quote		$51.47
-1.3% to trigger		$47.35$52.50WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/7 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
7HOODevent_gap_hold
forming · q 59.06
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$105.12
hourly quote		$112.45
-6.5% to trigger		$98.77$114.70WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
8NTRAunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$319.52
hourly quote		$326.26
-2.1% to trigger		$300.16$332.79WATCH
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownNOT SELECTED
9TBBBunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$48.67
hourly quote		$48.99
-0.6% to trigger		$45.07$49.97APPROACHING
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/7 · opus WAIT/7
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
10RACEcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 72.18
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$422.68
hourly quote		$437.15
-3.3% to trigger		$411.72$445.89WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
11TGTXcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 74.48
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$53.62
hourly quote		$57.90
-7.4% to trigger		$48.50$59.06WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
12UBERcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 73.02
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$76.12
hourly quote		$82.36
-7.6% to trigger		$73.97$84.01WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/7 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
13TMOvcp
forming · q 79.69
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$619.88
hourly quote		$647.00
-4.2% to trigger		$580.00$659.94WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
14IMNMcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 65.69
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$27.15
hourly quote		$30.06
-9.7% to trigger		$26.69$30.66WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/6 · opus WAIT/7
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
15ACADvcp
forming · q 82.88
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$28.95
hourly quote		$30.96
-6.5% to trigger		$27.90$31.58WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
16DKunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$75.22
hourly quote		$72.25
+4.1% to trigger		$66.47$73.69EXTENDED
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownTOO EXTENDED
17RVTYunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$128.16
hourly quote		$129.71
-1.2% to trigger		$119.33$132.30WATCH
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownNOT SELECTED
18NDSNbreakout_retest
forming · q 86.8
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$321.91
hourly quote		$315.68
+2.0% to trigger		$306.21$321.99TRIGGERED
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/6 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
19BWINcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 70.31
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$30.77
hourly quote		$32.59
-5.6% to trigger		$29.86$33.24WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/8 · opus WAIT/8
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
20AVNTunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$43.90
hourly quote		$44.67
-1.7% to trigger		$41.10$45.56WATCH
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownNOT SELECTED
21TTEKthree_weeks_tight
ready · q 75.57
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$35.97
hourly quote		$37.59
-4.3% to trigger		$34.20$38.34WATCH
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/7 · opus WAIT/7
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
22FNVunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$263.70
hourly quote		$266.16
-0.9% to trigger		$244.87$271.48APPROACHING
no setup warning		fable-5 WAIT/7 · opus WAIT/7
shadow SPLIT_OR_WAIT		unknownNOT SELECTED
23KGCunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$30.77
hourly quote		$31.27
-1.6% to trigger		$28.77$31.90WATCH
20d extension +35.5%; chase risk		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		2026-11-03NOT SELECTED
24FRPTcontrolled_pullback
forming · q 73.37
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$69.95
hourly quote		$77.13
-9.3% to trigger		$70.26$78.67INVALID
extension give-back: -8.2% off 20d high with 5d -4.3%; post-event move largely surrendered		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownINVALID
25ABNBunclassified
-- · q --
MVP UNRATED --/100 · unrated		$182.38
hourly quote		$189.43
-3.7% to trigger		$174.28$193.22WATCH
no setup warning		no hourly reviews
shadow INSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS		unknownNOT SELECTED

Active candidate book

2 current decider-visible candidates · 51 additional retained monitoring names hidden from this table · retained monitoring has no BUY authority
SymbolStateWhy activeTriggerInvalidationLast checkedMechanical state
NOGACTIVEVALID OUTRANKED
Setup is technically valid (pivot 25.02 held, stop 24.27 in band) but negative P/E (-4.97), declining EPS, oil-price risk, and Scout's own lower-conviction MACD note rank it below RGEN.		$25.02$24.27Aug 31 14:32 CTEXTENDED
RGENACTIVEBUY FINALIST
Confirmed MVP-A leader holding its 168.37 breakout on declining volume with $173M 50d dollar volume, no earnings within 30d, and a structural stop 4.58% below the live quote.		$168.37$163.32Aug 31 14:32 CTEXTENDED

Equity curve vs the S&P 500

performance baseline $1,000.00S&P 500 (SPY, same start) $997.43Hermes $950.63
flow-adjusted return $-49.37 · -2.47% vs $2,000.00 contributed; deposits are not profit

Open positions

Exit model: each position carries a broker-side protective stop, a price target, and a time-stop at its horizon — whichever hits first closes it. The card shows where each sits and the deciders' own entry reasoning.
VIXMHEDGE_VIX · 17 sh @ $14.38 · now $13.54   $-14.37 (-5.88%)
Stop$12.50 (-13.1%)
Target—
Reward:Risk—
ProtectionPROTECTED
one live broker stop matches state, quantity, and price
Timeline & exit—
Why it entered (its reasoning)—
PAASMATERIALS · 2 sh @ $52.93 · now $51.89   $-2.08 (-1.96%)
Stop$50.60 (-4.4%)
Target$56.60 (+6.9%)
Reward:Risk1.6:1
ProtectionPROTECTED
one live broker stop matches state, quantity, and price
Timeline & exit3 of 30 sessions held (opened 2026-08-26) · time-stop ~2026-10-07 · 27 left
Why it entered (its reasoning)PAAS broke out over the 52.17 pivot on 3.40x volume and has pulled back intraday to 52.915, right onto that level, with the setup-library invalidation at 50.60 giving a real 4.4% structural stop and RR 1.59 to 56.60 — it is the only frozen-list name whose own stated invalidation sits inside the permitted stop band (FCX/NTRA/RGEN/IQV/HALO/TBBB/NFLX/TXG all require a stop wider than the 4-8% cap, or 4-6% given DXCM is an open HEALTH_CARE position). It is also the least overbought metals name (RSI 66.2 vs FCX 72.9) with $218M/day liquidity and no earnings within 30 days. Macro shades this DOWN, not up: Hermes EXTREME_GREED 78 with VIX 15.45 at the 15th percentile is crowd complacency near highs, and the account's own 1-win/5-loss YTD record argues for restraint — so this is a confidence 6, smallest-tier entry on structure alone, not a conviction bet. Invalidated by a close below 50.60 (failed breakout retest), which is where the stop sits.

Independent initial-ballot audit

Latest cycle: Aug 31 08:39 CT · CURRENT DECISION

Fable initial vote

BUY RGEN
confidence 6 · stop $163.32 · target $192.00 · horizon 35 sessions · earnings none_within_30d
RGEN is a confirmed MVP-A (93/100) bioprocessing leader that broke out over 168.37 on 1.52x volume and has pulled back only ~3% on quiet 0.82x volume while holding the level, offering a retest entry at 174.01 with a structural stop at the setup invalidation 163.32 (-6.1%) and reward:risk ~1.7 to 192 (extension above the ~182 52-week-high area). Invalidated by a close below 163.32/the 50-day MA, which would mark a failed breakout. Macro regime is EXTREME_GREED with VIX at the 3rd percentile — crowd complacency plus a 240x P/E and the 150d MA still below the 200d cap my confidence at 6 rather than 7; the setup itself is clean enough to commit a one-share starter despite the regime. NOG was considered and outranked on fundamentals (negative EPS, declining earnings, Scout's own lower-conviction MACD note).
Evidence sources (3)
  • Driver-verified enrichment this cycle: RGEN earn=none_within_30d, quote 174.01 @ 2026-08-31T13:34:58, tradable=Y
  • https://www.investing.com/equities/repligen-corp-earnings (last report 2026-08-04 Q2; next quarterly report not scheduled within 30 days, Scout tentative 2026-10-27)
  • https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rgen/earnings

Opus initial vote

BUY RGEN
confidence 6 · stop $168.37 · target $190.00 · horizon 40 sessions · earnings none_within_30d
RGEN broke out over 168.37 on 1.52x volume, held the level, and is now digesting -6.6% below its 20d high on 0.82x volume while still +22.0% excess vs SPY over 20d with a 93/100 MVP-A leader profile and $173M 50d dollar volume — a constructive post-breakout retest rather than a chase, and no earnings within 30d (next ~2026-10-27). Stop 168.37 sits just under the breakout pivot (-4.58% from 176.455), risk $8.09 against a $190 target (modest new high above the ~188.7 20d high) for R:R ~1.67. Confidence is capped at 6, not higher: the macro regime is EXTREME_GREED (76.9) with VIX 14.43 at the 3.2nd percentile — complacency near highs demands a cleaner setup — RGEN's 150d MA is still not above its 200d (incomplete trend template), P/E is 240, and this book's realized record is 1-6 for -$34.03 YTD, so I sized conviction down rather than inflating it. Invalidation: any close below 168.37 (or the 50d average) breaks the base and the thesis; failure to reclaim the 20d high within the horizon means the leadership claim was noise.
Evidence sources (4)
  • HERMES CANDIDATE PACKET #1 RGEN (fingerprint c063f4d29163b3bbe8133f883697f9a7f0af06e78718c95731b7d3f64b6bd586; benchmark bar 2026-08-28)
  • MARKET & CANDIDATE DATA: RGEN quote=176.455 @ 2026-08-31T13:37:07.67802, earn=none_within_30d, RSI 64.48, MACD bullish, tradable=Y (robinhood:get_earnings_results RGEN)
  • MACRO REGIME line: Hermes EXTREME_GREED 76.8662, VIX 14.43 (3.1746th pct 252d)
  • BROKER SNAPSHOT 2026-08-31T08:31:35-05:00 (equity 1954.54, cash 1616.76, 2 open positions)

Final selector

BUY RGEN
direct Fable + Opus agreement
This is the latest completed decision cycle, not a historical alert.

Deterministic validator

NO APPROVAL -- share(s)
entry ref $-- · ceiling $-- · size $--
Stop $-- · target $-- · reward:risk --

Broker execution outcome

NO ORDER
--
No order reached the broker.

Learning-machine scoreboard

Setup observations
12400
append-only library
Matured outcomes
24042
0 means evidence is still aging
Candidate decisions
3972
selected + rejected + controls
Selection lift
-0.4%
advanced minus controls
Active setup keys
2603
ticker × setup lifecycle
Ready setups
678
current setup state
Forming setups
1824
current setup state
Top family
pullback
879 active
SetupBest matured horizonnMean excess vs SPYPositive excessMean MFEMean MAE
breakout_retesth10593+2.1%62.4%+5.1%-4.0%
controlled_pullbackh101376+1.0%56.6%+4.8%-4.4%
event_gap_holdh10588-0.6%46.1%+7.2%-7.5%
flat_baseh10991-0.1%44.3%+3.2%-4.0%
high_tight_flagh1027+6.1%74.1%+11.4%-5.9%
power_playh1086+0.8%47.7%+7.6%-6.7%
three_weeks_tighth10243-0.4%37.9%+2.4%-3.5%
vcph10471+0.3%41.8%+3.5%-3.7%
Trust rule: n is always shown; thin samples are evidence-in-progress, never an automatic permission to trade.
Why candidates were not bought15-name counterfactual ledger
RGENNO ORDER
No order reached the broker.
Status EXTENDED · trigger $168.37 · last $179.89 · hourly quote
NOGNOT SELECTED
Fable VALID OUTRANKED: Setup is technically valid (pivot 25.02 held, stop 24.27 in band) but negative P/E (-4.97), declining EPS, oil-price risk, and Scout's own lower-conviction MACD note rank it below RGEN. | Opus WEAK FUNDAMENTALS: Packet shows P/E -4.97 with eps declining and SCOUT itself flags it lower-conviction on only marginally positive MACD, so its chart strength is not backed by business evidence.
Status EXTENDED · trigger $25.02 · last $25.96 · hourly quote
HALONOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status TRIGGERED · trigger $105.35 · last $106.11 · hourly quote
IQVTOO EXTENDED
Price exceeded the approved max-chase level.
Status EXTENDED · trigger $251.36 · last $260.86 · hourly quote
MRKNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $156.92 · last $148.25 · hourly quote
AXGNNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $51.47 · last $50.82 · hourly quote
HOODNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $112.45 · last $105.12 · hourly quote
NTRANOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $326.26 · last $319.52 · hourly quote
TBBBNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status APPROACHING · trigger $48.99 · last $48.67 · hourly quote
RACENOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $437.15 · last $422.68 · hourly quote
TGTXNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $57.90 · last $53.62 · hourly quote
UBERNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $82.36 · last $76.12 · hourly quote
TMONOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $647.00 · last $619.88 · hourly quote
IMNMNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $30.06 · last $27.15 · hourly quote
ACADNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $30.96 · last $28.95 · hourly quote
DKTOO EXTENDED
Price exceeded the approved max-chase level.
Status EXTENDED · trigger $72.25 · last $75.22 · hourly quote
RVTYNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $129.71 · last $128.16 · hourly quote
NDSNNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status TRIGGERED · trigger $315.68 · last $321.91 · hourly quote
BWINNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $32.59 · last $30.77 · hourly quote
AVNTNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $44.67 · last $43.90 · hourly quote
TTEKNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $37.59 · last $35.97 · hourly quote
FNVNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status APPROACHING · trigger $266.16 · last $263.70 · hourly quote
KGCNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $31.27 · last $30.77 · hourly quote
FRPTINVALID
Setup invalidated at the last observed price.
Status INVALID · trigger $77.13 · last $69.95 · hourly quote
ABNBNOT SELECTED
Not selected in the latest full model vote; RGEN won the cycle.
Status WATCH · trigger $189.43 · last $182.38 · hourly quote
Learning contract: these non-selections remain in the candidate/setup ledgers so their later outcomes can be compared with the winner.
Decision timeline and journalproposal and event history

Initial-vote timeline — today

Aug 31, 08:39 CTCONSENSUS BUY RGENagree
Fable: BUY RGEN · conf 6Opus: BUY RGEN · conf 6
RGEN broke out over 168.37 on 1.52x volume, held the level, and is now digesting -6.6% below its 20d high on 0.82x volume while still +22.0% excess vs SPY over 20d with a 93/100 MVP-A leader profile and $173M 50d dollar volume — a…

Trading journal

Aug 31 08:39equity_drawdown_buy_rejected RGEN
Aug 31 08:39opus → BUY RGEN conf 6
Aug 31 08:37claude-fable-5 → BUY RGEN conf 6
Aug 31 08:34Broker data pulled for 2 candidate(s)
Aug 28 08:41opus → HOLD conf 7
Aug 28 08:41Consensus: HOLD
Aug 28 08:38claude-fable-5 → HOLD conf 7
Aug 28 08:35Broker data pulled for 15 candidate(s)
Aug 27 08:40opus → HOLD conf 7
Aug 27 08:40Consensus: HOLD
Aug 27 08:38claude-fable-5 → HOLD conf 7
Aug 27 08:35Broker data pulled for 15 candidate(s)
Aug 26 11:39confirmed PAAS
Aug 26 11:37Order proposed: BUY PAAS
Aug 26 11:37Validator APPROVED BUY PAAS (sized to the position rule)
Aug 26 11:36opus → BUY PAAS conf 6
Aug 26 11:34claude-fable-5 → BUY PAAS conf 6
Aug 26 11:31Broker data pulled for 15 candidate(s)
Aug 26 10:37opus → BUY PAAS conf 6
Aug 26 10:37Split — the two models did not agree, no order
Aug 26 10:34claude-fable-5 → HOLD conf 7
Aug 26 10:32Broker data pulled for 15 candidate(s)
Aug 26 09:37opus → BUY PAAS conf 6
Aug 26 09:37Split — the two models did not agree, no order
Aug 26 09:34claude-fable-5 → HOLD conf 7
Aug 26 09:32Broker data pulled for 15 candidate(s)
Aug 26 08:39opus → BUY PAAS conf 6
Aug 26 08:39Split — the two models did not agree, no order
Candidate funnel and intraday shadowraw funnel and zero-authority hourly research

Candidate shortlist

No shortlist captured for the latest cycle.

Intraday opportunity shadow

SHADOW ONLY · zero execution authority · plan source: full_cycle_plus_active_book · latest: Aug 31, 14:32 CT
RGEN · now $179.89 · baseline $175.99 · trigger $168.37EXTENDEDINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
NOG · now $25.96 · baseline $26.39 · trigger $25.02EXTENDEDINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
HALO · now $106.11 · baseline $104.39 · trigger $105.35TRIGGEREDSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: READY · opus: WAIT
IQV · now $260.86 · baseline $258.83 · trigger $251.36EXTENDEDINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
MRK · now $148.25 · baseline $147.29 · trigger $156.92WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
AXGN · now $50.82 · baseline $50.37 · trigger $51.47WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
HOOD · now $105.12 · baseline $102.12 · trigger $112.45WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
NTRA · now $319.52 · baseline $320.03 · trigger $326.26WATCHINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
TBBB · now $48.67 · baseline $49.05 · trigger $48.99APPROACHINGSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
RACE · now $422.68 · baseline $422.88 · trigger $437.15WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
TGTX · now $53.62 · baseline $53.20 · trigger $57.90WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
UBER · now $76.12 · baseline $77.33 · trigger $82.36WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
TMO · now $619.88 · baseline $616.12 · trigger $647.00WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
IMNM · now $27.15 · baseline $27.46 · trigger $30.06WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
ACAD · now $28.95 · baseline $28.85 · trigger $30.96WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
DK · now $75.22 · baseline $73.80 · trigger $72.25EXTENDEDINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
RVTY · now $128.16 · baseline $128.38 · trigger $129.71WATCHINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
NDSN · now $321.91 · baseline $323.16 · trigger $315.68TRIGGEREDSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
BWIN · now $30.77 · baseline $30.44 · trigger $32.59WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
AVNT · now $43.90 · baseline $44.82 · trigger $44.67WATCHINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
TTEK · now $35.97 · baseline $36.54 · trigger $37.59WATCHSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
FNV · now $263.70 · baseline $263.77 · trigger $266.16APPROACHINGSPLIT_OR_WAIT
claude-fable-5: WAIT · opus: WAIT
KGC · now $30.77 · baseline $30.84 · trigger $31.27WATCHINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
FRPT · now $69.95 · baseline $70.03 · trigger $77.13INVALIDINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
ABNB · now $182.38 · baseline $187.72 · trigger $189.43WATCHINSUFFICIENT_VALID_REVIEWS
models pending
Attribution and confidence calibrationresults populate as samples mature

Performance attribution

Research lane/statusHorizonnMean excessPositive excess
lane:congressh51+1.9%100.0%
lane:congress_trackerh12+0.9%50.0%
lane:market_sweeph103-11.2%0.0%
lane:mechanicalh10950+1.3%53.8%
lane:newsh1023+5.9%91.3%
lane:socialh54-10.0%0.0%
lane:xh1077-3.0%23.4%
lane:x_paramounth117+0.0%47.1%
lane:x_socialh51+5.9%100.0%
status:advanceh10162+0.7%46.9%
status:rejecth57-2.1%42.9%
status:unreviewed_controlh10484+2.4%58.9%
status:watchh10407-0.4%46.4%
Scout sourceScored nHit rateExcess vs SPYWeight
No source scorecard.
Live bookSectorEntry confidenceUnrealized P&LReturn
VIXMHEDGE_VIX--$-14.37-5.9%
PAASMATERIALS6$-2.08-2.0%
Current limitation: closed-trade P&L attribution will populate only when broker-confirmed exit records exist locally; no result is inferred from an open position.

Confidence calibration

ConfidenceVotesBUY votesHOLD votesWinner votesFrequencyOutcome calibration
64644225
awaiting resolved trade outcomes
758322626
awaiting resolved trade outcomes
8270270
awaiting resolved trade outcomes
92020
awaiting resolved trade outcomes
Honesty rule: vote frequency is visible now; win rate by confidence remains blank until entries have broker-confirmed exits.
Trade and decision replayfilterable latest 30 cycles
Aug 31 08:37 CT · BUY RGEN · NO ORDER   TODAY
  • Fable: BUY RGEN confidence 6 — RGEN is a confirmed MVP-A (93/100) bioprocessing leader that broke out over 168.37 on 1.52x volume and has pulled back only ~3% on quiet 0.82x volume while holding the level, offering a retest entry at 174.01 with a structural stop at the setup invalidation 163.32 (-6.1%) and reward:risk ~1.7 to 192 (extension above th
  • Opus: BUY RGEN confidence 6 — RGEN broke out over 168.37 on 1.52x volume, held the level, and is now digesting -6.6% below its 20d high on 0.82x volume while still +22.0% excess vs SPY over 20d with a 93/100 MVP-A leader profile and $173M 50d dollar volume — a constructive post-breakout retest rather than a chase, and no earnings within 30d (next ~
  • Selector: BUY RGEN — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: NO ORDER — No order reached the broker.
Aug 28 08:38 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads EXTREME_GREED (75.8) with VIX 14.51 at the 3.97th percentile of a year — crowd complacency near highs, which lowers my willingness to take a marginal entry, and the book's 1-win/6-loss entry record argues for extra selectivity. Ten of fifteen candidates are the same health-tech theme riding a 9-day-old mRNA
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — The shortlist is one crowded trade: 10 of 15 names are Health Technology riding read-through from the single 2026-08-19 mRNA readout, and the group is priced accordingly — NTRA 72.3, TMO 72.8, IQV 73.3, RGEN 75.0, HALO 72.0 RSI, most at or near 20d highs. Layered on Hermes EXTREME_GREED (75.8) with VIX 14.51 at the 3.9
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 27 08:38 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads EXTREME_GREED (80.1) with VIX at the 11.5th percentile — crowd complacency near highs, which demands an unusually clean setup, and no candidate clears that bar today: the leaders (FCX, NTRA, TXG, RGEN, IQV, TMO, HALO) are 20-38% extended over 20 days with RSIs above 70 or cannot carry a structurally valid s
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — No packet name offers both a timely entry and a structurally honest stop inside the mandated band: MRK/HOOD/TBBB sit below their pivots with gap-low invalidations outside the 4-8% window, FCX/NTRA/RGEN/HALO/TXG are 27-39% extended over 20d with RSI 70-74, TMO and RACE are too expensive for a single whole share at any j
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 26 11:34 CT · BUY PAAS · FILLED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY PAAS confidence 6 — PAAS broke out over 52.17 on 3.40x volume and is now pulling back to retest that level (quote 52.91, ~1.4% above pivot), the least-extended metals leader in the packet with a bundle-grounded invalidation at 50.07 (5.4% below, within band) and R:R ~1.8 to 58. This is a pullback entry into held structure, not a chase, un
  • Opus: BUY PAAS confidence 6 — PAAS broke out over the 52.17 pivot on 3.40x volume and has pulled back intraday to 52.915, right onto that level, with the setup-library invalidation at 50.60 giving a real 4.4% structural stop and RR 1.59 to 56.60 — it is the only frozen-list name whose own stated invalidation sits inside the permitted stop band (FCX
  • Selector: BUY PAAS — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: FILLED — Broker-confirmed order.
Aug 26 10:34 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads EXTREME_GREED (78) with VIX at the 15th percentile — complacency near highs demands a cleaner setup, and this packet does not supply one: nearly every name is 15-35% extended with RSI >70, TMO is unaffordable at one share, RACE is non-tradable, and the health-care names cannot fit a 4-6% same-sector stop al
  • Opus: BUY PAAS confidence 6 — PAAS broke out over 52.17 on 3.40x volume and is now retesting that level from above at 52.74, the highest-quality structure in the packet (breakout_retest quality 88) and the only candidate whose supplied structural invalidation (50.60) sits inside the 4-8% stop band, giving 4.06% risk against a 58.00 measured-move ta
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 26 09:34 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads EXTREME_GREED (78) with VIX at the 15th percentile — complacency near highs demands an unusually clean setup, and this frozen intraday list doesn't offer one: nearly every name carries a 5d/20d extension or chase-risk flag (MRK +15.7% 5d, FCX +20.5%, HOOD +22.5%, TXG +37.6% 20d), the health-care names confl
  • Opus: BUY PAAS confidence 6 — PAAS is the only packet name offering a defined, non-invented invalidation inside the stop band at a non-extended entry: quote 53.24 sits just +2.05% above the 52.17 breakout pivot that was cleared on 3.40x volume and has held, with the breakout-retest invalidation at 50.60 giving a 4.96% stop and 2.5:1 reward to 60.00
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 26 08:37 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads EXTREME_GREED (78) with VIX at only the 15th percentile — crowd complacency near highs demands an unusually clean setup, and this packet doesn't offer one: nearly every ranked leader carries a mechanical chase-risk extension flag (MRK +15.7%/5d, FCX +20.5%, HOOD +22.5%, NTRA +33.5%/20d, TXG +37.6%/20d) with
  • Opus: BUY PAAS confidence 6 — PAAS is the only packet name offering a tight, structural invalidation rather than a chase: it broke out over 52.17 on 3.40x volume, the level held, and at 53.15 it sits just +1.9% above that pivot with RSI 66.2 — the least overbought of the shortlist, where MRK/HALO/RGEN/TMO/FCX print RSI 72-79 and 20d extensions of 2
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 25 10:34 CT · BUY ACAD · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY ACAD confidence 6 — ACAD is the least-extended valid setup in the packet: a grade-A leader whose breakout over 29.65 on 1.31x volume was retested and held, with the live quote 30.38 only ~2.5% above the pivot (RSI 63, not overheated) and adequate liquidity ($45.7M/day). The 28.76 breakout-retest invalidation is a structurally real stop 5.
  • Opus: BUY ACAD confidence 6 — ACAD is the least-extended name in the packet: MVP grade A 93, 60d +37.1%, 20d excess vs SPY +13.5%, yet the 2026-08-24 settled close sat only ~1.2% over the 10d MA and the 29.65 breakout (1.31x volume) has been retested and held, with RSI 63.4 and $45.7M/day liquidity. Entry at 30.38 is ~2.5% above the pivot with a re
  • Selector: BUY ACAD — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 24 08:38 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Macro reads GREED (69.9) with VIX at a low 24th percentile — crowd complacency near highs demands an unusually clean setup, and this packet does not offer one at an honest confidence: most names are 20d-extended with RSI above 70, the best structural candidate (NTRA) merits only confidence 6 given its +26.7% 20d run an
  • Opus: BUY ACAD confidence 6 — ACAD is the least-extended grade-A name in the packet: live 29.22 sits only ~0.7% over the 10d MA and RSI 62.65 after a 29.48 breakout that held on 1.31x volume, with 60d +39.2% and price above a rising 21/50/150d stack — a retest entry rather than a chase, and $45.2M/day liquidity clears the bar with 10 whole shares a
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 21 08:38 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Extreme-greed regime (Hermes 77) with VIX at the 6.7th percentile while the S&P has fallen three straight sessions on a 4.70% 10-year is exactly the complacency-near-highs condition that demands a cleaner setup than this shortlist offers, so macro directly lowered my willingness to commit new capital. Nearly every cand
  • Opus: BUY AVNT confidence 6 — AVNT is the only name in the packet offering a non-chase entry: grade A leader structure (21>50>150>200), 20d excess vs SPY +18.3%, and a 5d pullback of -5.2% that puts the live quote 44.18 right on the 43.96 breakout shelf with RSI 59.85 rather than extended above the 10-day MA. With Hermes at EXTREME_GREED (76.998) a
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 20 08:37 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY URGN confidence 6 — URGN is the cleanest entry on the shortlist: a grade-A (MVP 100/100) leader with +21.5% 20d excess vs SPY that broke out over 47.84 on 2.7x volume and has now pulled back to 49.09, only ~2.6% above the pivot — a retest entry rather than a chase, unlike the extended gold names. Stop 46.40 (setup invalidation below the p
  • Opus: BUY TTEK confidence 7 — TTEK is the tightest structure on the board: a triggered breakout_retest holding its 35.16 pivot, close 0.4% above the prior 20-session high, only +2.7% over the 10-day MA, MVP grade A with a rising 200-day average, MACD bullish 56 sessions, and $100M 50d dollar volume with a profitable P/E of 22. The macro line (Herme
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 19 10:34 CT · BUY ABNB · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY ABNB confidence 7 — ABNB is triggering today: live quote 187.70 has just cleared the dual ready pivots (event_gap_hold 187.12, power_play 186.97) after a verified Q2 beat (EPS 1.37 vs 1.24), a held 8.6% earnings gap on 4.37x volume, and a tight 4.3% five-session shelf — a fresh confirmation, not a chase. The supplied structural invalidati
  • Opus: BUY ABNB confidence 7 — ABNB is a grade-A leader (MVP 97/100, all moving-average positives) that gapped +8.6% on 4.37x volume off a Q2 beat (EPS $1.37 vs $1.24), held the gap low, and spent five sessions in a tight 4.3% shelf; the live quote 187.76 is clearing the power-play pivot 186.97/187.12 today, so this is a defined trigger rather than
  • Selector: BUY ABNB — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 19 09:35 CT · BUY ABNB · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY ABNB confidence 7 — ABNB is the cleanest actionable setup in the packet: both the event_gap_hold (pivot 187.12) and power_play (pivot 186.97) setups are flagged READY, and the live quote 188.15 has just cleared both pivots after a 4.3% five-session shelf following a verified Q2 beat (EPS $1.37 vs $1.24) with $659M daily dollar volume. The
  • Opus: BUY ABNB confidence 7 — ABNB is the only packet name where a 'ready' setup, a live trigger, and a structurally valid stop line up at once: the live quote 188.59 has cleared both the event-gap pivot 187.12 and the power-play pivot 186.97 after a tight 4.3% five-session shelf on top of the 8.6% earnings gap (Q2 beat, rev and EPS growing), with
  • Selector: BUY ABNB — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 19 08:36 CT · BUY TWLO · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO broke out over 229.22 on 4.22x volume after a verified Q2 beat (EPS $1.47 vs $1.18), pulled back ~9% over 5 sessions, and is now retesting and holding the pivot at 233.09 with RSI 58 and bullish MACD — a timely retest entry rather than a chase, unlike most of the packet which is extended (RSI 70+) or below pivot.
  • Opus: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO gapped +21.8% on 4.22x volume off a Q2 2026 beat (EPS $1.47 vs $1.18), broke out over 229.22, and has since pulled back -9.3% over 5 days on below-normal volume (0.76x) while holding both the breakout level and the 227.02 gap low — a constructive retest rather than a failure, with RSI 58.3 and MACD still bullish,
  • Selector: BUY TWLO — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 18 14:07 CT · BUY TWLO · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only packet name trading above a valid pivot with a compliant structural stop: quality-94 breakout-retest over 229.22 on 4.22x volume has held, quote 233.895 sits just above the pivot with RSI 56.7 (not overbought), MACD bullish, growing revenue and EPS, and $472M daily dollar volume; stop 222.34 (retest in
  • Opus: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only packet name offering a timely entry rather than a chase: quote 234.22 sits just 2.2% above the 229.22 breakout level that held on 4.22x volume (breakout_retest quality 94/100, ready), with 20d extension only +11.4% and RSI 56.74 — the least extended, least crowded leader on the shortlist while the rest
  • Selector: BUY TWLO — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 18 13:15 CT · BUY TWLO · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only packet name trading above a defined pivot with a structurally valid stop inside the 4-8% band: breakout_retest_candidate [ready] quality 94/100, pivot 229.22 broken on 4.22x volume, level held on the pullback (RSI 56.7 reset, MACD bullish), and quote 232.315 has reclaimed the pivot with the 222.34 inva
  • Opus: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only packet name that is not an extended chase: quote 232.10 sits just above the 229.22 breakout pivot after a 5d -8.6% pullback, with the highest-quality setup in the shortlist (breakout_retest ready, 94/100), RSI 56.7 rather than 70s, MACD bullish, grade-A leader profile, growing rev/EPS, and $472M 50d do
  • Selector: BUY TWLO — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['cannot assess sector concentration: stored sector missing for VIXM', 'max_new_orders_per_day 0 reached']}
Aug 17 14:32 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 8 — Buying power is $8.61 (cash-account funds unsettled after today's ATI stop fill), so no candidate — not even a 1-share exception — can be funded, and any BUY would be auto-rejected by sizing. All four open positions have intact theses per the monitor (EMR/ARMK/DXCM MACD bullish on the 2026-08-14 bar, VIXM is a stop-pro
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 8 — Buying power is $8.61 against a $50 minimum order, so no new whole-share BUY can be funded this cycle regardless of setup quality — cash of $473.15 is unsettled and unavailable. The frozen intraday list is also uniformly extended (RSI 63-79, most names 20d +22% to +48% with explicit chase warnings, and every one tradin
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 17 13:33 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 8 — Buying power is $8.61 in this cash account (TWLO was stopped out today at 233.54 and proceeds are unsettled), which cannot fund any whole share or meet the $50 minimum order, so every BUY would be auto-rejected and proposing one wastes the cycle. All four monitored positions (EMR, ARMK, DXCM, ATI) show intact theses wi
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 8 — Broker buying power is $8.61 against a $10.00 minimum price rule, so no whole share of any frozen intraday-eligible candidate can be funded this cycle — a BUY would be mechanically rejected regardless of setup quality. All five open positions (EMR, ARMK, DXCM, ATI, VIXM) have confirmed resting stops and intact theses p
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 17 11:33 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — One of today's two buy slots was already used on TWLO this morning and 5 of 6 position slots are filled with only $253 buying power. Every affordable frozen candidate is either extended (RSI 71-78 after 30-48% twenty-day runs), trading below its pivot with no intraday trigger on this non-Scout light cycle, or lacks a s
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — This is a light cycle with one BUY already executed today (TWLO at 233.71) and only $253.07 of buying power against a 5-position book, so a new entry would consume the last of both the cash and the 6th position slot on a name that no longer offers a timely entry. Every frozen candidate is a post-earnings gapper from th
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 17 10:34 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY MGNI confidence 6 — Grade-A leader holding an 11.3% post-earnings gap (Q2 EPS $0.26 vs $0.22, 2026-08-05) with a flat 5-day shelf below the 25.45 pivot on above-normal volume — digestion, not distribution. Entry at 24.46 against the structural gap low gives a 22.60 stop (-7.6%, in band) and 28.50 target for ~2.2:1 reward:risk, with next e
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — Light intraday cycle with no new Scout information: every affordable frozen name is either mid-consolidation BELOW its pivot with no trigger today (MGNI 24.47 vs 25.45 pivot, ABNB 181.03 vs 187.12, QLYS 182.76 vs 201.54 — all red on the session), extended with RSI 74-79 and 20d gains of +31% to +48% (HP, CHYM, WHD, FRP
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 17 09:33 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Book is nearly full (5 of 6 slots, ~87% invested, $253 buying power) and every affordable shortlist name is either extended post-gap (RSI 70-79 with fading volume) or sitting below its pivot without a trigger: MGNI, the only candidate with a structurally valid in-band stop (22.60, -7.7%), trades 3.7% under its 25.45 pi
  • Opus: BUY MGNI confidence 6 — MGNI is the only affordable packet name whose own structural invalidation sits inside the legal risk band: the 2026-08-05 post-earnings gap low of 22.60 is 7.8% below the 24.51 live quote, so the stop is a real level rather than an invented one, and the 5d +0.0% shelf under the 25.45 pivot is digestion rather than a ch
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 17 08:38 CT · BUY TWLO · FILLED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only shortlist name offering a structurally valid stop inside the 4-8% band: it broke out over 229.22 on 4.26x volume after a verified Q2 beat (EPS $1.47 vs $1.18), held the level through a 5-session shelf, and sits just 3.2% above the pivot with RSI 62.8 and MACD bullish while most peers are extended 30-48
  • Opus: BUY TWLO confidence 7 — TWLO is the only packet name that is both structurally intact and not extended: it broke out over 229.22 on 4.26x volume after a Q2 beat (EPS $1.47 vs $1.18), held the gap, and has spent five sessions digesting (5d -1.3%, RSI 62.77, -7.8% below its 20d high) rather than running — the opposite of the RSI 75-79 chase-ris
  • Selector: BUY TWLO — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: FILLED — Broker-confirmed order.
Aug 14 14:34 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — Broad intraday pullback: nearly every frozen candidate is trading 2-4% below yesterday's close and below its stated pivot, so no name offers a confirmed trigger with a structurally valid 4-8% stop today. The only name above trigger (HP, 44.22 > 43.44 pivot) carries a 5d +16.2% chase-risk flag, an EPS-miss catalyst, and
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — Late light-cycle (quotes stamped 14:30-14:34 CT) with the packet's growth leaders broadly lower intraday versus the 2026-08-13 bar (NET -4.3%, QLYS -4.3%, TWLO -4.3%, GKOS -2.3%), so nothing is triggering; the names that are up (HP +2.6%, CORT +3.4%) are the extension/chase cases. For nearly every candidate the only st
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 14 13:35 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY HP confidence 6 — HP is the only frozen TRADE_READY name through its trigger this cycle: quote 44.235 cleared the 43.44 gap-hold pivot and the 52-week-high zone intraday. The catalyst is now verified, not just mechanical: fiscal Q3 revenue of $1.035B beat estimates ~5%, all three segments exceeded guidance, and FY rig-count guidance was
  • Opus: BUY QLYS confidence 6 — QLYS gapped 23.2% on a Q2 beat ($1.98 vs $1.68 est, 2026-08-04), has held the gap low on a 9.3% five-session shelf, and at the 189.37 live quote sits only 4.4% above the structural gap-low invalidation at 181.09 — the one packet name where a real, non-invented support level falls inside the 4-8% stop band, giving ~2.5:
  • claude-fable-5 cross-review: HP APPROVE/6; QLYS REJECT/3
  • opus cross-review:
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 14 12:33 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — No frozen candidate offers a valid trigger this cycle: the structurally cleanest setups (QLYS, NET, ZBRA, TWLO, MGNI) are all trading below their stated pivots and red on the intraday tape, while the names up today are either a flagged 5d +16% chase (HP) or lack a technically valid stop inside the required band (CORT,
  • Opus: BUY QLYS confidence 7 — QLYS gapped 23.2% on 2.08x volume off a Q2 beat (EPS $1.98 vs $1.68) and has held the entire gap for a week, building a 9.3% shelf under the 201.54 pivot while staying the least-extended strong name in the packet (5d +7.8%, 20d +19.4% vs peers at +30-46%). The live quote of 190.12 sits just above the 181.09 gap low, so
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 14 11:33 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 7 — No frozen candidate offers both a timely trigger and a technically valid in-band stop this cycle: nearly the whole shortlist is trading below yesterday's close and below its pivot (QLYS -3.2%, TWLO -3.9%, ZBRA, CRL, NET, GKOS all red), the few green names (HP, CORT) lack any supplied structural stop inside the required
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 7 — Every frozen intraday-eligible name is either below its stated pivot (GKOS, MGNI, CORT, NET, PAY, QLYS, ZBRA, CRL, FRPT, TWLO) or carries an explicit mechanical chase warning after a 16-29% five-day or 30-46% twenty-day run (HP, CHYM, TXG, TWLO, ZBRA), and the whole post-earnings gap-hold cohort is red intraday (NET -3
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 14 08:34 CT · NO BUY · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: HOLD confidence 8 — The HERMES packet explicitly lists no eligible BUY candidates, and no new symbol may be introduced outside it. All four open positions (EMR, ARMK, DXCM, ATI) have confirmed mechanical stops, no deterioration flags, and no material adverse updates in the monitor, so no discretionary SELL is warranted. Holding preserves
  • Opus: HOLD confidence 8 — The Hermes candidate packet explicitly returns NO ELIGIBLE BUY CANDIDATES (model shortlist: 0), so there is no permitted source for a new BUY symbol this cycle, and no add qualifies (EMR already has adds=1, ARMK/DXCM/ATI are all under +5% unrealized with ATI at a loss). All four open positions have confirmed GTC stops
  • Selector: NO BUY — no final BUY selection
Aug 13 14:36 CT · BUY QLYS · NO ORDER   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY QLYS confidence 7 — QLYS is a Grade-A RS leader (60d +116%) that beat Q2 earnings on 2026-08-04, gapped 23% and held, then built a tight 5-session power-play shelf (+2.1% 5d, volume drying to 0.60x); today's live quote 194.50 clears the 192.73 shelf pivot by under 1%, a timely entry rather than a chase. Stop at the 181.09 gap low is a str
  • Opus: BUY QLYS confidence 7 — QLYS is the only frozen-list name printing an actual trigger today rather than a chase: the live quote 194.50 sits just 0.9% above the power_play pivot 192.73 after a 32.1% eight-session advance and a 9.2% five-session shelf, with a grade-A leader profile (20d excess vs SPY +20.4%, MACD bullish 3.2702) and a real busin
  • Selector: BUY QLYS — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: NO ORDER — No order reached the broker.
Aug 13 13:34 CT · BUY QLYS · VALIDATOR REJECTED   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY QLYS confidence 6 — QLYS is an A-grade (90/100) relative-strength leader (+116% over 60d) digesting its 2026-08-04 Q2 earnings beat (EPS $1.98 vs $1.68) with a quiet 0.60x-volume shelf 7% below its 20d high — the least-extended valid setup in the packet, not a chase. Entry at ~190.59 risks 5.0% to the structural gap low at 181.09 (within
  • Opus: BUY QLYS confidence 7 — QLYS is a Grade-A (90/100) leader holding a 23.2% post-earnings gap (Q2 beat 2026-08-04, EPS $1.98 vs $1.68) and has spent the last five sessions resting (+2.1% over 5d) on 0.60x volume just under the 192.73 power-play pivot rather than extending — a constructive shelf, not a chase, and it adds a technology sleeve to a
  • Selector: BUY QLYS — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: VALIDATOR REJECTED — {'approved': False, 'reasons': ['cannot assess sector concentration: stored sector missing for ATI']}
Aug 13 11:33 CT · BUY ATI · RESTING / PENDING   HISTORICAL
  • Fable: BUY ATI confidence 7 — ATI is a grade-A leader (MVP 100/100, all trend-template positives) in a 9.7% five-session power-play shelf after a 26.7% post-earnings advance, with the Q2 beat (EPS $1.23 vs $1.02) as the driver and quiet 0.81x volume during consolidation. Entry at 230.62 carries a structural gap-low stop at 219.99 (4.6% risk, inside
  • Opus: BUY ATI confidence 7 — ATI is the cleanest structure on the frozen list: MVP A 100/100 with zero cautions, price above a stacked 21/50/150/200-day average set, 20d excess vs SPY +20.9%, and a post-earnings gap (Q2 EPS $1.23 vs $1.02, 2026-08-06) whose gap low has held while volume cooled to 0.81x. The 219.99 shelf/gap low is a real structura
  • Selector: BUY ATI — direct Fable + Opus agreement
  • Order lifecycle: RESTING / PENDING — resting daily-brain limit; local position book unchanged until broker-proven fill
Replay scope: proposal → review → selector → validator/order outcome from append-only local ledgers. Hourly shadow points appear as their ledger matures.
System mechanics and healthrules, limits, and runtime checks

How it sizes and manages risk

Position sizeup to 25% of account equity per position (about $250.00 on a $1,000 account), minimum $50.00 per order. Sizing is deterministic — the validator multiplies your equity by 0.25, not a model guess.
Concurrencyat most 6 open positions and 2 new buys per day
Stop-loss4–8% below entry (tightened to 6% if it is the same sector as a position already held)
Reward : riskthe target must be at least 1.5× the distance to the stop, or the trade is rejected
Quality filtersskips any name within 7 days of earnings; requires price ≥ $10.00 and ≥ $20,000,000.00 average daily dollar volume
Account drawdown guardnew BUYs stop at 15% below the ratcheting account-equity high-water mark. Deposits and gains raise that mark; SELLs and protective orders continue. The legacy $850.00 all-trading halt remains as a final backup.

System health

Mode
LIVE / BUY HALT
Cycles today
7
Executor aborts
0
Broker snapshot
as of Aug 31 14:30 CT
Kill switch
clear
Account high water
$1,997.75
New-BUY floor
$1,698.09
Current drawdown
2.36%
Absolute backup
$850.00
Days live
28
Deciders
claude-fable-5 + opus